![]() Some Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, an outspoken member of its Board of Governors, and Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, have said they think the cumulative effects of the previous rate hikes have already been baked into the economy. “Core is still quite elevated," Powell said at his news conference. One cautionary note is that a “core” inflation measure that is preferred by the Fed, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was still up 4.6% in May from a year earlier. ![]() Year-over-year inflation in June was 3%, according to the government, down sharply from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. That’s about where it was when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022 - a sign of economic resilience that almost no one had foreseen. Hiring has remained healthy, with employers having added 209,000 jobs in June, with the jobless rate reaching an ultra-low 3.6%. Many Americans still have savings stemming from the pandemic, when the government distributed stimulus checks and people saved by spending less on travel, restaurants and entertainment. economist, has pointed to durable consumer spending as a key driver of growth. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. Those at Deutsche Bank, among the first large banks to forecast a recession, have also been encouraged by the economy’s direction, though they still expect a downturn later this year. Sharp wage gains can perpetuate inflation if companies respond by raising prices for their customers.Īt the same time, the steady easing of inflation pressures has lifted hopes that the Fed can pull off a difficult “soft landing,” in which its rate hikes would continue to cool inflation without sending the economy tumbling into a painful recession.Įconomists at Goldman Sachs have downgraded the likelihood of recession to just 20%, from 35% earlier this year. In recent weeks, several Fed officials have said they worry that the still-brisk pace of job growth will lead workers to demand higher pay to make up for two years of inflationary prices. Some economists think the Fed might decide to forgo a rate increase in September before weighing a possible hike at its meeting in November. 19-20, Powell noted Wednesday, they will have much more data in hand: Two more inflation reports, two reports on hiring and unemployment and updated figures on consumer spending and wages. When the officials last met in June, they signaled that they expected to raise rates twice more. He stressed that the Fed's policymakers will assess a range of incoming economic data in determining what action, if any, to take at their next policy meeting. “The process of getting inflation down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell said. But he made clear that the fight against inflation isn't over. Speaking at a news conference after the Fed announced its latest hike, Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has made no decisions about any future rate increases. It's a sign that it sees the economy as slightly healthier than it did just last month.Ī key question swirling around the Fed is whether Wednesday’s increase will be its last or whether it will hike again later this year. In a statement, the Fed said the economy “has been expanding at a moderate pace,” a slight upgrade from its assessment in June. Most crucially, businesses keep hiring, with the unemployment rate still near half-century lows. With consumer confidence reaching its highest level in two years, Americans keep spending - crowding airplanes, traveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters. Though inflation has eased to its slowest pace in two years, Wednesday’s hike reflects the concern of Fed officials that the economy is still growing too fast for inflation to fall back to their 2% target. Coming on top of its previous rate hikes, the Fed’s latest move could lead to further increases in the costs of mortgages,auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing. The move lifted the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate from roughly 5.1% to 5.3% - its highest level since 2001. WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate Wednesday for the 11th time in 17 months, a streak of hikes that are intended to curb inflation but that also carry the risk of going too far and triggering a recession.
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